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In the December Capital-Markets Outlook, we discuss the market reaction to the election, our outlook, and how we have positioned client portfolios. Markets were initially volatile in response to Donald Trump’s surprising win in the US presidential election. Since November 8, investors have been digesting the results and anticipating the impact of the new administration’s expected actions on various asset classes.
The main objective of Donald Trump’s fiscal plan is to strengthen the economic growth cycle. His proposals for tax cuts and increases in spending on infrastructure and defense are important and carry with them positive implications for the economy. But investors also need to recognize that this shift in fiscal policy could easily change the benign (low inflation and low interest rate) nature of the business cycle.
Given the turbulent start to 2016, you may be wondering if you’ll be able to stay on track to meet your goals. Our latest paper entitled “Is It Time to Sell?,” examines that very issue. It also provides our perspective on the concerns that are central to the recent market slide: What’s happening in China and in the oil markets.