One Number Every Business Owner Needs to Know

Most entrepreneurs eyeing the exit have a “magic” number in their head—a price tag they feel they need to secure before handing over the reins. But few can show their math, leading many to overestimate the amount they truly require.

Why the disconnect? Because most entrepreneurs lack a set formula for their sale price. Some back into a figure based on a rough feeling of what their business should be worth. Others cite rounded numbers, like $15 million or $30 million, though somewhat arbitrarily. Only a small subset has undertaken a rigorous analysis to determine whether their dream bid is sufficient to achieve their post-sale financial goals.

Secure Your Core

You didn’t build a successful business by relying on guesswork, so why let it drive your exit strategy now? To calculate a more precise figure, start from the bottom, with spending. Project how much you think you’ll spend after a sale—without the benefit of running your expenses through your business. By combining this estimate with how your sale proceeds will be invested, and factoring in your age, you’ll arrive at your “core capital”—the amount of money needed today to sustain your lifestyle for the rest of your life with a high degree of confidence.

Take John and Jane, a 60-year-old couple who are planning to sell their organic pet food business. John is determined to hold out for $30 million gross, but Jane encourages him to consider a current bid that will yield $18 million in after-tax proceeds. Will this suffice?

To answer, they estimate that they will spend somewhere between $300,000 to $375,000 from their portfolio each year once the business is sold. Starting with this baseline, we calculated their core capital assuming the proceeds will be invested in one of three ways:

• an ultra-conservative portfolio of all bonds,
• a conservative allocation (20%/80%) of globally diversified stocks and bonds, or
• a moderately conservative allocation (40%/60%) of globally diversified stocks and bonds

If they spend $300,000 after-tax annually—adjusted for inflation and excluding any other sources of income such as Social Security[1]—the couple’s core capital comes to $11.3 million, assuming they invest in the moderately conservative portfolio. Alternatively, it could range as high as $16.5 million if they opt for the ultra-conservative, all-bond portfolio. While this strategy will have somewhat lower volatility, it’s likely to generate lower returns over time (Display 1).

But what if their spending is on the higher side? With the conservative allocation, $12.9 million covers their core capital needs at $300,000 in spending. But if they spend $375,000, they’ll need $16.2 million. Interestingly, this highlights the importance of investment allocation to the calculation: $16.2 million for spending $375,000 is less than the core capital of $16.5 million needed for $300,000 at the most conservative allocation. It’s not just about the deal amount; how you invest greatly impacts what the sale proceeds can do for you and your family over the long term.

 

Surplus Depends on Proceeds

That doesn’t mean John and Jane should ignore the value of their business. While their core capital is not influenced by valuation, their “surplus capital” is. The latter represents assets above core capital that the couple could use to benefit family, charity, or other loved ones. It could also fund additional spending, such as a new vacation home or plane membership.

For example, if John and Jane do receive $18 million in after-tax proceeds from the sale (Display 2), their surplus capital would range from $1.5 million to $6.7 million (depending on how the proceeds are allocated and how much they spend). This surplus wealth could be earmarked for any number of goals. For instance, they could seed a donor-advised fund with $1 million, saving $200,000 of income taxes while funding their lifetime charitable donations of $40,000 per year. Or they could buy a $4 million vacation home while paying for college for their grandchildren.

 

Precision Pays Off

It is essential for entrepreneurs to determine their core and surplus capital requirements prior to consummating a deal. Most owners have finite opportunities to sell their business. Knowing whether you have flexibility around your target price—or you should hold firm—can strengthen your hand during negotiations. With your core and surplus underpinning your “dream number,” you can confidently accept a bid that sustains your lifestyle, leaves a legacy for charity or heirs, and enables you to pursue pre-transaction strategies that help optimize your tax efficiency.